My apologies for another long break in posts on the Hurricanes. I have been traveling and was out of the country for the past week. I thought that I would get some posts completed before I left, unfortunately, time got the best of me and I wasn’t able to get my 5-part series that I mentioned on December 6th completed.
Now that I am back in the country and not traveling, I wanted to re-visit the
five-part series. Today, we are going to look at what has been the "Achilles Heel" for a majority of the Canes season up to this point. When I began looking at this during the first week of December, the Canes had two major issues—scoring and playing with lead/tied and finishing the game.
From the beginning of November until December 6th, the Canes played in 17 games. In that time span, they scored one-goal seven times, two-goals five times and had 3 or more goals only in five games. It appears that their goal-scoring woes may be behind them though—in the past six-games, the Canes have scored 3 or more in five or the games and have a total of 23 goals in those six-games. In the previous 24 games, the Canes had only scored 57 goals to put it in perspective.
Looking at the shooting percentages, in those 17 games from November 1st to December 6th, the Canes were tied for 28th worst in the league with a 5v5 shot percentage of 5.3%. However, the past six-games has seen an 11.3% at 5v5. Even more concerning than the shooting percentage was the amount of goal distribution throughout the team as the Canes had 17 players with one or less goals—only five had scored more than five-goals in the first 24 games.
Evaluating the Canes statistics from the 17 game sample, one will note that they were third in the NHL for amount of D-Zone face-offs with only 209. In addition, when looking at their 5v5 zone start percentage they were second in the NHL at 55.53% being in the offensive zone. Furthermore, from the beginning of the season until December 6th the Canes also were third in the NHL with Shot Attempts differential (SAT)with a plus 123—to say the least, the opportunities were there but the puck luck wasn’t. Ultimately, one can see that puck possession, face-off location, face-off percentages and shot attempts paint a positive picture for the Canes.
The Canes problems of playing with the lead is not a trend that has been broken the past 6-games. The Canes for the season are 24th in win percentage when leading after one period only winning .600% of the games. Even more concerning is their win percentage when leading after two periods which is the worst in the NHL at .571% and they are 8-1-5. On the bright side, they are one of the better teams playing from behind after two periods, as they are tied for second in the NHL winning .333% of those games.
Finally, looking at the SAT% when they are ahead or behind, in their first 24 games, they were second in the league at controlling 52.43% while ahead and third in the NHL when trailing controlling 59.69%. Looking at the Unblocked Shot Attempts % (USAT%), one will see that the statistics and league positioning are relatively similar.
The two notable declines in their statistics are when they are tied which saw them fall to 15th in SAT% and USAT % 22nd and 10th when in close games. Essentially, the Canes do not play well when they are tied or in a close game which has been quite often this season(defined as within 1 goal or tied in the third period). Many of the games that the Canes have dropped this season have seen third period collapses.
Hopefully, now that Staal and Lindholm are back in the line-up, the Canes can continue to produce offensively. The one downside looking at the past six-games is that Ward and the defensive unit have begun to look more like they did during their opening 6-game road trip. If the goals keep coming and the D tightens up, the Canes are posed to climb the standings in a schedule that has a majority of games at home until early February.
Part III will look at “The Expendables, Roster Analysis and Expansion Implications.” Thanks for reading and check back for Part III on December 24th.
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • 
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